At its peak, in 117 AD, the Roman Empire was home to an estimated 60 million people. The territory spanned an area of 5 million square kilometres and was seen as the pinnacle of human advancement.1 The empire appeared indestructible due to its wealth, formidable strength, and stability. Nonetheless, by 476 AD, Rome had collapsed. Its decline is well-documented: political instability and corruption in the upper echelons, weakened borders from continuous invasions, and population decline caused by the Plague of Galen (165–180 AD). Had these factors been singular in nature, there would not have been sufficient cause for collapse. However, together they wrought circumstances in which the most powerful empire of that era could no longer sustain itself.2 Other mighty civilizations, such as the Maya, fell to a similar fate.3 Using data from past collapsed civilizations, social scientist Luke Kemp, calculated the average lifespan of a civilization: 336 years.4 This suggests that the collapse of civilizations is not an exceptional occurrence, but rather an inevitable rule.

Despite unprecedented technological advancements, the interconnected nature of our global civilization renders it more vulnerable to collapse than past empires due to relentless resource exploitation, disordered healthcare systems, and escalating internal political instability. This essay analyses past civilizations to identify parallels between the factors that led to their collapse and the threats facing our civilization. Civilizational collapse is herein defined as the loss of socio-political and economic complexity, often accompanied by a decline in population size.5

A critical factor to the survival of a civilization is its natural resources, which provide essential food, fuel, and raw materials. The exploitation of these resources has historically contributed to the collapse of civilizations such as the Māori hunter-gatherers in New Zealand’s South Island, Te Waipounamu, and the Hawaiians in Kaho’olawe. In the 1700s, the Hawaiian population peaked, but soon declined after the destruction of vegetation on the island creating a barren, uninhabitable landscape. Similarly, the Murihiku Māori exterminated the moa and seal species, leading to the decline of their population. The depletion of natural resources on both societies’ islands led to a decrease of crucial resources for their survival.6 These historical examples, among many others, highlight the critical importance of natural resources in the survival of a civilization and mirror the environmental hazards we face in the present day.

Our global civilization faces similar threats on a vaster scale, with climate change arguably being the most pressing. The extensive exploitation of fossil fuels and non-renewable resources has been a primary driver of modern industrial development and the subsequent climate crisis. Global oil consumption is estimated to rise from 94 million barrels per day in 2021 to 102 million barrels by 2030. This increase in overconsumption serves as a modern parallel to the resource depletion that threatened past civilizations, warning us that our current trajectory of environmental mismanagement and resource depletion could lead to a similar process of collapse. With worldwide demand for fossil fuels rising year after year, it is estimated that known oil deposits will run out by 2052, natural gas by 206, and coal by 2090. Control of oil and gas resources has been a significant factor in global conflict, and dwindling supplies and increased demand could further destabilize our civilization.7

Simultaneously, as climate change accelerates, its impact on global resources and food security intensifies. Increasingly disruptive climate patterns, such as prolonged droughts and unpredictable rainfall, have disturbed the consistency of agricultural output. It is reported that the 2010 heatwave in Russia created the worst drought conditions in roughly 40 years, resulting in 9 million hectares of crops lost, with the desiccated remnants highly susceptible to catching fire.8 Given that climate change is a planetary phenomenon, there is substantial risk for this to cause further crises such as famine and surges in crop prices, highlighting potentially catastrophic impacts on our global civilization.

Despite sufficient global food production, distribution remains starkly unequal. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, between 691 and 783 million people faced hunger in 2022, a 21.4 percent increase from 2019.9 This rise indicates that global food insecurity is worsening despite agricultural advancement. Additionally, the World Food Programme identifies economic instability, conflict, and poor infrastructure as significant barriers to food distribution, preventing adequate access for a substantial portion of the population. In 2022, approximately 258 million people in 58 countries faced food insecurity at crisis level or worse.10 These figures suggest that the problem lies not only in production but also in the unequal distribution of resources.

In addition to the aforementioned causes of civilizational collapse, epidemics and pandemics have the potential to decimate or, at the very least, decrease a civilization’s population to the point of disrupting economies and social structures. Just as plagues and epidemics posed existential threats to the Roman Empire, ongoing and future pandemics endanger our civilization. The Antonine Plague devastated the empire; approximately a quarter to a third of the entire population perished. This disastrous death toll significantly weakened both the population and the military, facilitating successful external attacks by German tribes. Additionally, economic impact was severe due to reduced tax revenue, agricultural productivity, and workforce shortage which contributed to the Roman Empire’s increasing vulnerabilities and eventual collapse.11 Similarly, The Black Death (1347-1352) reduced the global population by a third and caused labour shortages, economic and social disruption across medieval Europe.12 These historical examples highlight the catastrophic impact of plagues and pandemics on civilizations.

            Our present-day civilization faces similar threats as global and regional responses to the COVID-19 pandemic exposed significant dysfunctions in our global healthcare systems. The SARS-CoV-2 virus, first identified in December 2019, killed around 7.8 million people in four-and-a-half years and disabled approximately 80.7–155 million.13 Due to reduced access to testing after the sociological end of the pandemic, these figures are likely undercounted.14 The rapid spread of COVID-19, caused by regional and global air travel, dense urban populations and institutional mishandling, devastated global healthcare systems and led to shortages within the healthcare sector. The overwhelming spread of the virus resulted in a redirection of healthcare resources and staff, resulting in the delay of a wide range of health services.15 This exacerbated health inequities and increased preventable deaths, evidencing our civilization’s unpreparedness for ongoing and future pandemics. The pandemic’s aftermath poses a threat to the stability of global healthcare and economic systems, as well as our civilization more broadly.

            Government indifference and failure to address other pressing sociopolitical issues such as widening economic disparity, political corruption and polarized societies may lead to civilizational collapse via political instability and social unrest. The collapse of the Byzantine Empire’s (330–1453 AD) was affected by such destabilizing factors. Civil wars between John VI Kantakouzenos and John C. Palaiologos drained the empire’s resources. Additionally, economic mismanagement and heavy taxation under emperors like Andronikos II weakened the state. This, alongside military defeats and loss of territories to the Ottomans culminated in its collapse.16 Ultimately, the interplay of political corruption, economic disruption, and social division illustrates how internal instability can contribute to the collapse of a civilization.

            Just as political corruption destabilized the Byzantine and Roman Empires, the global rise of far-right politics, increasing polarization within societies, and global economic disparities threatens our civilization by exacerbating social division and undermining social cohesion and stability. Economic mismanagement and disruption are evident in dramatic wealth gaps on global and national levels. In the US this was illustrated in 2019 when the household wealth of the top 0.1 percent exceeded bottom 40 percent by approximately $100 million.17 Increasing socioeconomic disparity and crises have historically and presently unearthed tension between different social classes, leading to socio-political movements like the international Occupy movement in 2011. Promoting the unifying slogan “We are the 99 percent”, which refers to unequal concentrations of wealth, protestors across the world expressed their frustrations with social and economic inequality.18 Thirteen years later, these issues persist. The mismanagement of the COVID-19 pandemic has led to high inflation and increased economic hardship, deepening social divides and intensifying socio-political instability.19

Divided and polarized societies threaten social stability as they hinder effective governance. In many countries, political tensions between left-wing and right-wing groups have escalated in recent years.20 Populist leaders and movements often exploit social divisions, which have a potential to lead to a breakdown in civil discourse and increase social tensions. In the US, for example, the share who consistently hold liberal or conservative views has grown from 10 percent to 21 percent over the past two decades, illustrating the growing polarization and the deepening ideological divide.21 This makes it harder for societies to tackle more urgent and common problems such as climate change, economic inequality, and global health crises. These parallel the factors that led to the collapse of past civilizations and underscore the vulnerability of our global civilization to the loss of socio-political and economic complexity.

In conclusion, the analysis of historical civilizations emphasizes common causes of collapse: resource exploitation, environmental degradation, pandemics, and political instability. The striking parallels drawn between collapsed civilizations and our present situation reveal that our technological advancements and interconnectedness have not shielded us from these existential threats. Instead, they have magnified the consequences of harmful decisions made by governments, corporations and individuals alike, whether that be the rapid global transmission of diseases or accelerated environmental degradation. Looking forward, we can mitigate these risks by prioritizing sustainable resource management, equitable resource distribution, robust universal healthcare, and effective governance to safeguard social cohesion and prevent the decline of our civilization.

Notes

1 Christopher Kelly, The Roman Empire: A Very Short Introduction, Google Books (Oxford University Press, 2006), https://global.oup.com/academic/product/the-roman-empire-9780192803917?cc=us⟪=en&.

2 A. H. M. Jones, “The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire,” New Series 40, no. 140 (October 1995): 209–26, https://www.jstor.org/stable/24403110?casa _token= T9PS9Ks8o2IAAAAA:8W3VTaKUfOWL3K-YB72pIYlKAft5xWfGCR qoIoGdNmLH0bRXQgbDrymJS5xzPCddk5yFiYmrxI3mCMrnawtNDV_PHozhBGAaYf4wd-kMNyikzS9tK6M&seq=11.

3 Amanda Onion, “Mayan Civilization: Calendar, Pyramids & Ruins,” HISTORY, August 11, 2023, https://www.history.com/topics/ancient-americas/maya.

4 Luke Kemp, “The Lifespans of Ancient Civilisations,” BBC, February 24, 2022, https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20190218-the-lifespans-of-ancient-civilisations-compared.

5 Jared Diamond, “Ecological Collapses of Past Civilizations,” Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society 138, no. 3 (September 1994): 363–70, https://www.jstor.org/stable/986741?read-now=1&seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents.

6 Diamond, “Ecological Collapses.”

7 Gioietta Kuo, “When Fossil Fuels Run Out, What Then?,” MAHB, May 2019, https://mahb.stanford.edu/library-item/fossil-fuels-run/; Jeff Colgan, “Oil, Conflict, and U.S. National Interests,” Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, October 2013, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/oil-conflict-and-us-national-interests.

8 “The Russian Heatwave of Summer 2010,” Met Office, February 24, 2016, https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/learn-about/weather/case-studies/russian-heatwave.

9 SDG Helpdesk, “2023 HLPF: FAO Key Messages,” n.d., https://www.fao.org/sustainable-development-goals-helpdesk/overview/sdg-progress-and-alignment/2030-agenda-follow-up-and-review.

10 Food Security Information Network, “2023 FSIN Joint analysis for better decisions,” 2023, https://www.fsinplatform.org/sites/default/files/resources/files/GRFC2023-compressed.pdf.

11 John Horgan and Science Museum, “Antonine Plague,” World History Encyclopedia, September 5, 2024, https://www.worldhistory.org/Antonine_Plague/.

12 Mark Cartwright and Arnold Böcklin, “Black Death,” World History Encyclopedia, September 29, 2023, https://www.worldhistory.org/Black_Death/.

13 KFF, “Global COVID-19 Tracker,” August 26, 2024, https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/global-covid-19-tracker/; Claire E. Hastie et al., “True Prevalence of long-COVID in a Nationwide, Population Cohort Study,” Nature Communications 14, no. 1 (November 30, 2023), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-43661-w.

14 Artie Vierkant and Beatrice Adler-Bolton, “The Year the Pandemic ‘Ended’ (Part 1),” The New Inquiry, December 22, 2022, https://thenewinquiry.com/the-year-the-pandemic-ended-part-1/.

15 World Health Organization [WHO], “COVID-19 Continues to Disrupt Essential Health Services in 90% of Countries,” WHO News, April 23, 2021, https://www.who.int/news/item/23-04-2021-covid-19-continues-to-disrupt-essential-health-services-in-90-of-countries.

16 Matthew McIntosh, “The Decline and Collapse of the Byzantine Empire,” Brewminate, October 18, 2023, https://brewminate.com/the-decline-and-collapse-of-the-byzantine-empire/.

17 “Wealth Inequality,” Inequality.org, April 23, 2024, https://inequality.org/facts/wealth-inequality/#household-wealth.

18 Andrew Anthony, “‘We Showed It Was Possible to Create a Movement from Almost Nothing’: Occupy Wall Street 10 Years On,” The Guardian, September 12, 2021, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/sep/12/occupy-wall-street-10-years-on.

19 “How COVID-19 Will Increase Inequality in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies,” World Economic Forum, November 3, 2020, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/11/how-covid-19-will-increase-inequality-in-emerging-markets-and-developing-economies/.

20 The Politics Watcher, “The Rise of Right-Wing Politics: A Global Perspective,” The Politics Watcher, January 22, 2024, https://thepoliticswatcher.com/pages/articles/international/2024/1/22/rise-right-wing-politics-global-perspective.

21 Abigail Geiger and Abigail Geiger, “Political Polarization in the American Public,” Pew Research Center, April 14, 2024, https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/06/12/ political-polarization-in-the-american-public/.

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