Winter usually brings significant COVID surges, with the weeks between Christmas and New Year’s marking some of the pandemic’s most severe peaks. However, this year’s trends suggest a departure from that pattern, leaving experts uncertain about what to expect. Experts are divided on what this could mean. Optimistically, the recent increase could be short-lived, reflecting post-Thanksgiving transmission that quickly subsides. Alternatively, it could indicate the virus is merely delayed, with a more significant wave looming. Michael Hoerger, a forecasting expert, suggests a potential peak around January 7, though the scale is expected to remain below prior pandemic peaks.

From September to November, virus levels in wastewater—a reliable metric now that case tracking has declined—were unusually low, as were hospitalizations and deaths. Recent data, however, shows a sharp uptick in viral activity, likely due to Thanksgiving gatherings. Whether this signals the start of a winter wave remains unclear. The article highlights a broader uncertainty about COVID’s seasonal patterns. While viruses like flu and RSV predictably spike in winter, SARS-CoV-2 has proven less consistent. Epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers finds it unusual that a winter wave might not occur, given COVID’s historical patterns. However, Michael Osterholm argues that these patterns are shaped more by variant emergence and waning immunity than by seasonality. COVID’s irregular behavior, such as potentially peaking out of sync with flu, might even alleviate some strain on hospitals.

Author Yasmin Tayag concludes that after five years, COVID remains unpredictable. The virus’s behavior could stabilize into discernible patterns, but current trends may still prove irregular. This uncertainty offers both caution and hope, suggesting this holiday season may avoid the devastating surges of years past.