The lab-leak theory—that COVID-19 originated from a Chinese laboratory—has shifted from controversial speculation to political orthodoxy under Donald Trump’s administration. Trump confidently asserts the virus leaked from a Wuhan lab, despite a lack of conclusive evidence. His administration has adopted this belief as a guiding principle, declaring it “confirmable truth,” despite continued uncertainty among experts and split conclusions from intelligence agencies.

While the lab-leak theory was once dismissed as conspiracy or xenophobia, it gained legitimacy over time as more circumstantial evidence emerged. Yet, no new definitive proof has been provided. The theory’s recent rise owes more to political utility than scientific discovery—it has become a litmus test for loyalty within the MAGA movement and justification for sweeping policy changes. These include an $18 billion cut to biomedical research and increased scrutiny of international scientific collaborations.

Key Trump officials, including Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and NIH Director Jay Bhattacharya, have espoused extreme versions of the theory, including the belief that SARS-CoV-2 was a U.S.-funded bioweapon. Meanwhile, figures like Alina Chan and Bryce Nickels—vocal lab-leak proponents—are being considered for prominent scientific roles.

Despite some proponents calling for more transparency and oversight, the politicization of the theory may stifle genuine investigation. Increased hostility toward the scientific community and international researchers could hinder the data collection needed to determine the virus’s origin. Scientists fear backlash for engaging with a debate now dominated by ideology rather than inquiry.